Climate Forcings and the Nonlinear Dynamics of Grassland Ecosystems By

The nonlinear interaction of climate forcings and ecosystem variables is instrumental in creating the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of grasslands. Ecosystem processes are a product of these interactions and vary in sensitivity to them across time. How forcings aggregate and shape ecosystem responses is an important aspect of grassland states and defines how they respond to changes in environmental conditions. Characterizing the relationship between climate drivers and ecosystem variables helps sharpen analysis of ecosystem flux dynamics during the growing season and identifies likely deviations from mean functioning. To address the question of how climate forcings and ecosystem variables interact to shape seasonal water and carbon dynamics in grasslands, this thesis is split into two analysis chapters. The first (Chapter 3) is a characterization of water and carbon flux responses to variable precipitation timing and magnitude. Particular focus is placed on temporal sensitivity to inputs, seasonality in water flux dynamics, and the linkage between precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and potential evaporation. Chapter 4 extends International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1B) regional climate scenario projections for the Central Plains of the United States to